The current state of the economy was the hot topic in the first half of 2022. The rapidly rising inflation rate, the lowest returns on bonds in over 200 years, low stock returns, and an increase in all living expenses has placed immense pressure on our daily routines. In this blog, I will address the effects scarcity has on consumers and talk about what to keep in mind as we progress through the... READ MORE

You've probably noticed inflation came in especially hot this week. I'd like to share a quick article by Barry Ritholtz that digs into what goes into that 9.1% number. Long story short, its mostly about oil, but attention needs to be paid to services.  The  CPI data  came out today sizzling hot at 9.1%: “ Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 9.1 percent before seasonal... READ MORE

Over the past few weeks, there is one story that trumps all in the world, and that’s the Russian war against Ukraine. Like all of you, I have been bombarded with stories from mainstream sources on TV and print, as well as the legion of armchair geopolitical experts on social media. Despite the firehose of everchanging information, it seems there is no shortage of opinions on what we (the US,... READ MORE

January’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) numbers came in last week and inflation was hotter than expected. Prices were up 0.6% in January, which means a year over year (yoy) increase of 7.5%. As you may have seen, this is the highest since 1982. As we’ve said previously , inflation is one of the scariest words in finance. It invokes troubling memories of the 1970’s where inflation was high... READ MORE

Portfolio performance in 2021 ended on a solid note with a strong December after a weak November. Most portfolios were up double digits for the year. This performance extended a winning streak that began at the end of 2018, despite the extreme COVID selloff in 2020. And, looking further back, portfolios have consistently gained since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. Will it continue? Of... READ MORE

Below is an excerpt from our latest WJ Notes newsletter. The full piece examines how inflation affects stocks, bonds and alternatives as well as our own positioning in those asset classes.  Stocks Stocks are always more complicated to predict than bonds. There are several factors to consider when predicting how they will perform during a period of inflation. What were the valuations going into... READ MORE

Recently we wrote a blog covering the signs of inflation we are currently experiencing and defining the type of inflation this could ultimately lead to. All of that is summed up here. This WJ Notes is the Part II to the blog and is going to cover how inflation will ultimately affect the portfolio, and what we can do about it. We recommend reading the first part in order to have a better... READ MORE

Inflation is one of the scariest words in finance. It is something people have been especially concerned about ever since the Fed started printing money in 2008. You have all seen the commercials telling you to buy gold (or perhaps more recently bitcoin) to save yourself from the impending collapse of the dollar. Since then, we have seen almost no inflation at all, struggling just to get over 2%... READ MORE

Although most of the focus has been on stocks lately, it is bonds that have arguably had the more interesting year. Interest rates (which we will use the 10-year treasury yield to represent) have been climbing rapidly, starting the year from about 0.9% to 1.52% today. This often neglected number is extremely important. It represents the cost of money. Where the 10-year rate sits influences the... READ MORE

  Every week, we read a TON of information. Blogs, articles, research papers…it’s our job to be informed about what’s happening in the market, economy, and society in general. Most people don’t have the time to sort through so much information, so we’ll do it for you. Every week, I will post some of the best charts, graphics, tweets, etc, that I find and put it here in a quick,... READ MORE